Crimean crisis, will Crimea join Russia?

Started by Tsanten Eywa 'eveng, March 18, 2014, 02:11:46 PM

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Kemaweyan

Why do you repeat a lie from Russian TV? There are Russian citizen, for example leader of Slavyansk separatists Igor "Strelkov" Girkin is an officer of Russian GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate) and lives Moscow. Also I gave you a video with «поребрик» (a word which is used in Saint Petersburg only):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG8VLYgEa5c#

It means that terrorist on the video is from Saint Petersburg. Also before in Kharkov Russian citizen put Russian flag on Kharkov administrative building. Sure, he had no weapon, but he was between pro-russian separatists. So please don't say that there are no Russian citizen.
Nìrangal frapo tsirvun pivlltxe nìNa'vi :D

baritone

Quote from: Kemaweyan on May 15, 2014, 07:05:09 AM
Why do you repeat a lie from Russian TV?
I look on the Russian TV "The Smurfs" cartoons only.  :)
Also, I'm a Trotskyist and I have my own sources among the supporters and opponents of Maidan.
But you're right, there are a Russians in the south-east of Ukraine. Just recently I heard in Moscow as an American writer Limonov :) invited volunteers to fight in Ukraine.

The problem is that 25,000 volunteers from the army of the Republic of Donetsk are Ukrainians. And older women who require to leave terrorists alone are also Ukrainians. And those who stood in line to vote for Donetsk republic in the "referendum" are also Ukrainians. "Terrorists" are supported by civilians, "terrorists" act as power, and because that they are not terrorists, they are party of civil war. To stop the civil war, it will be necessary to negotiate with the citizens of Ukraine, with those who represent them. Israelis agreed with the PLO, although they are terrorists, because they have been supported by the Palestinians. Putin lied when he called the war against Chechnya "counter-terrorist operation." No need to follow Putin example, he will teach you bad.

Kemaweyan

#102
Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 08:30:38 AM
Also, I'm a Trotskyist and I have my own sources among the supporters and opponents of Maidan.

So probably your "own sources" watch Russian TV. Even if personally you don't watch TV, you live in the society and anyway hear that propaganda...

But now you said:

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 08:30:38 AM
But you're right, there are a Russians in the south-east of Ukraine. Just recently I heard in Moscow as an American writer Limonov :) invited volunteers to fight in Ukraine.

So you said a lie before? I mean these words:

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 02:08:16 AM
There was no Russian citizens in the Crimea, and separatists in eastern Ukraine are Ukrainians too.

Even Putin said that there were Russian soldiers in Crimea though denied it before. Current situation in Donbass is completely same.

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 08:30:38 AM
The problem is that 25,000 volunteers from the army of the Republic of Donetsk are Ukrainians.

There is no "Republic of Donetsk". It does not exist. Have you seen a map? Only red regions are controlled by separatists. And there are not 25000 of people who want to fight. Also I can't find any information about 25000 volunteers. It seems as propaganda too...
Nìrangal frapo tsirvun pivlltxe nìNa'vi :D

archaic

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 02:21:23 AM
Quote from: archaic on May 14, 2014, 01:35:54 PM
So, do I buy shares in companies who build nuclear bunkers?
:o
I do not know how the Ukraine situation looks from inside Russia, but from where a great many folks outside Russia are looking, there is very real concern that the pieces are being put in place for the beginning of the next world war.

Weather it comes to all out nuclear strikes or not, a lot of very nervous folks are way more likely to install a bunker in their back yard just now, than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis.


I feel we should all be enormously thankful that the US has a President in the White house like Barack Obama is, not one like George W. Bush was.
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baritone

Quote from: Kemaweyan on May 15, 2014, 09:10:44 AM
Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 08:30:38 AM
Also, I'm a Trotskyist and I have my own sources among the supporters and opponents of Maidan.

So probably your "own sources" watch Russian TV. Even if personally you don't watch TV, you live in the society and anyway hear that propaganda...

But now you said:

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 08:30:38 AM
But you're right, there are a Russians in the south-east of Ukraine. Just recently I heard in Moscow as an American writer Limonov :) invited volunteers to fight in Ukraine.

So you said a lie before? I mean these words:

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 02:08:16 AM
There was no Russian citizens in the Crimea, and separatists in eastern Ukraine are Ukrainians too.
I mean the simple fact that  residents of Ukraine, who support the separatists and calls himself "Russians", before the separation of the USSR to Russia and Ukraine consider themselves Ukrainians despised "Moscovites". If they began to call themselves "Russians" now, it is the fault of Ukraine.

As for my sources, this is a letters from the Ukraine, including the letters of those who burned in the House of Trade Unions, who were left alive, not killed by Maidan supporters when he jumped to ground, and letters from those who bandaged wounds of Maidan supporters.

Stop being angry. All is not as easy as you think.

baritone

Quote from: archaic on May 15, 2014, 02:06:17 PM
Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 02:21:23 AM
Quote from: archaic on May 14, 2014, 01:35:54 PM
So, do I buy shares in companies who build nuclear bunkers?
:o
I do not know how the Ukraine situation looks from inside Russia, but from where a great many folks outside Russia are looking, there is very real concern that the pieces are being put in place for the beginning of the next world war.

Weather it comes to all out nuclear strikes or not, a lot of very nervous folks are way more likely to install a bunker in their back yard just now, than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis.

I feel we should all be enormously thankful that the US has a President in the White house like Barack Obama is, not one like George W. Bush was.
I think that someone wanted more money, and for this decided to increase military budgets. It is necessary that everyone in the world saw great danger from some powerful and aggressive state for this. The best way to portray this is to arranging a small war. But Putin did not want to be used as a horror story, and someone profited from the military budget. In my opinion, it have been seen that Putin tries to moderate separatists claim on sending Russian troops or joining Russia. Putin does not want the east of Ukraine, because there is Donbass mines. Putin wants to be recognized as the most intelligent. He wants to make it look like that the problems in Ukraine arose from the fact that his opinion have not been listen. After all that, Putin will try to negotiate better terms for trade with Europe, and that Ukraine was not interfere about this. Of course, he wants to have NATO countries away from their borders, and generally wants to minimize the role of NATO. He raises the role of the OSCE for this. Maybe he decided to take the Crimea to obstruct the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO.

IMHO, the outcome of this satisfied not only Putin, but also Europe, and Obama, but it is not satisfied with the current Ukrainian government and corporations claiming a share of the U.S. budget. But, because the military plays a big role in the separatists, the Ukrainian government has the ability to stir up conflict to any level, including that at which Putin will have to send troops to Ukraine and Europe will be forced to go on a serious conflict with Russia and begin to arm and strengthen NATO.

Therefore, the forces for and against the spread of the conflict are approximately equal, and nothing is impossible to predict. But I hope for Obama, he is very clever, though not free in their actions, perhaps he will be able to keep everything under control.

Kemaweyan

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 10:04:14 PM
As for my sources, this is a letters from the Ukraine, including the letters of those who burned in the House of Trade Unions, who were left alive, not killed by Maidan supporters when he jumped to ground, and letters from those who bandaged wounds of Maidan supporters.

In this case I'm not surprised. If you converse with separatists then I'm not surprised that you repeat their lie. Don't say that there are not Russian citizens, even Putin recognized this fact (that there were Russian soldiers in Crimea).
Nìrangal frapo tsirvun pivlltxe nìNa'vi :D

Tìtstewan

In 9 days there is an election in the Ukraine and the people have the choise to vote their favorite president. Then, they have a legitime president (which was also a big point of critiques of the separatists regarding the actual president).

Quote from: baritone on May 16, 2014, 04:06:46 AM
I think that someone wanted more money, and for this decided to increase military budgets.
The US is finacially so broken that they have to reduce they military budget. Also G.W. Bush (If he were president) couldn't start a war, expect he would incread the taxes for their US citizen. Iraq and Afghanistan was and is a desaster and extremely expensive, and I don't think that any US president would be so stupid to start a war with a state who owns nukes.
But this could be also a situation, where the US could promote that TTIP. A lot of people here are against it...

If Putin want more money from the EU by starting a small war, this could be a bad idea, because the EU started discussions how to get indenpendence from Russian gas. If the EU would be successful in a way, Putin would lose money...

Quote from: baritone on May 16, 2014, 04:06:46 AMOf course, he wants to have NATO countries away from their borders, and generally wants to minimize the role of NATO. He raises the role of the OSCE for this. Maybe he decided to take the Crimea to obstruct the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO.
But he couldn't prevent it at least, if the Ukraine wants to join the NATO...
And the Ukraine is already listed as a partner.

Quote from: Kemaweyan on May 16, 2014, 05:49:44 AM
Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 10:04:14 PM
As for my sources, this is a letters from the Ukraine, including the letters of those who burned in the House of Trade Unions, who were left alive, not killed by Maidan supporters when he jumped to ground, and letters from those who bandaged wounds of Maidan supporters.

In this case I'm not surprised. If you converse with separatists then I'm not surprised that you repeat their lie. Don't say that there are not Russian citizens, even Putin recognized this fact (that there were Russian soldiers in Crimea).
It would be very useful, if one would link their sources here. :)

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Tsanten Eywa 'eveng

Quote from: Tìtstewan on May 16, 2014, 10:27:23 AM
In 9 days there is an election in the Ukraine and the people have the choise to vote their favorite president. Then, they have a legitime president (which was also a big point of critiques of the separatists regarding the actual president).

Quote from: baritone on May 16, 2014, 04:06:46 AM
I think that someone wanted more money, and for this decided to increase military budgets.
The US is finacially so broken that they have to reduce they military budget. Also G.W. Bush (If he were president) couldn't start a war, expect he would incread the taxes for their US citizen. Iraq and Afghanistan was and is a desaster and extremely expensive, and I don't think that any US president would be so stupid to start a war with a state who owns nukes.
But this could be also a situation, where the US could promote that TTIP. A lot of people here are against it...

If Putin want more money from the EU by starting a small war, this could be a bad idea, because the EU started discussions how to get indenpendence from Russian gas. If the EU would be successful in a way, Putin would lose money...

Quote from: baritone on May 16, 2014, 04:06:46 AMOf course, he wants to have NATO countries away from their borders, and generally wants to minimize the role of NATO. He raises the role of the OSCE for this. Maybe he decided to take the Crimea to obstruct the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO.
But he couldn't prevent it at least, if the Ukraine wants to join the NATO...
And the Ukraine is already listed as a partner.

Quote from: Kemaweyan on May 16, 2014, 05:49:44 AM
Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 10:04:14 PM
As for my sources, this is a letters from the Ukraine, including the letters of those who burned in the House of Trade Unions, who were left alive, not killed by Maidan supporters when he jumped to ground, and letters from those who bandaged wounds of Maidan supporters.

In this case I'm not surprised. If you converse with separatists then I'm not surprised that you repeat their lie. Don't say that there are not Russian citizens, even Putin recognized this fact (that there were Russian soldiers in Crimea).
It would be very useful, if one would link their sources here. :)
I hope they choose wisely, or things might get much worse than it is now. Ukraine is about soon to collapse, and something must be done immediately, but this needs to be done step by step. Fellow people of Ukraine, choose now a wisely president that can help you all out of this situation.


If Dontesk and Luhansk will split apart from Ukraine, then this will be the new map of Europe

archaic

Quote from: baritone on May 16, 2014, 04:06:46 AM
IMHO, the outcome of this satisfied not only Putin, but also Europe, and Obama,
Putin may be satisfied but Europe, and US people are terrified of where this is going.
Pretty sure George Dubya Bush would have launched a preemptive nuclear strike by now. I'm serious, Putin is playing the most deadly game of all, with our lives, your life, my life, the lives of a very great many others too.


Quote from: Tìtstewan on May 16, 2014, 10:27:23 AM
I don't think that any US president would be so stupid to start a war with a state who owns nukes.
I believe you missunderestimate Dubya.
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`Eylan Ayfalulukanä

No US President in their right mind would launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike, and that includes George W. Bush.

Yet, this situation is plenty ugly. The US stands to lose a lot of diplomatic and trade ground that they have carefully gained in the last 20 or so years.

Yawey ngahu!
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Tsanten Eywa 'eveng


Tìtstewan

Quote from: Tsanten Eywa 'eveng on May 18, 2014, 12:09:15 AM
Now this is a really good explanation of a possible scenario for World War 3
http://future.wikia.com/wiki/Scenario:_World_War_III_(Obama_vs._Putin)
Well, most of them are total speculation. For example, China would not so stupid to ruin their economy by such a world war. I somhow can't imagine that.
Also, todays word economy is very sensitive and would be damaged hard. It isn't like the last pre-world wars in the past.

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Kemaweyan

Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 02:08:16 AM
Donetsk Republic claim that his army recorded in 25,000 people and it is now trained.

Hrh ;D There are not even 1000 men in Donbass who want to fight against Ukrainian army. Leader of terrorists Igor "Strelkov" Girkin said it in his video appeal on youtube (in Russian) ;D ;D ;D

Обращение Игоря Стрелкова

Also he confirmed that there are Russian citizens («volunteers from Ukraine and Russia»).
Nìrangal frapo tsirvun pivlltxe nìNa'vi :D

archaic

Quote from: `Eylan Ayfalulukanä on May 17, 2014, 11:05:17 PM
No US President in their right mind would launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike, and that includes George W. Bush.
You know I respect you, as a member of this forum, and as a person. However, I feel we may have subtly differing opinions about the forty third president.


Quote from: `Eylan Ayfalulukanä on May 17, 2014, 11:05:17 PM
Yet, this situation is plenty ugly. The US stands to lose a lot of diplomatic and trade ground that they have carefully gained in the last 20 or so years.
So true, and the US is not the only country.
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baritone

Quote from: Kemaweyan on May 16, 2014, 05:49:44 AM
Quote from: baritone on May 15, 2014, 10:04:14 PM
As for my sources, this is a letters from the Ukraine, including the letters of those who burned in the House of Trade Unions, who were left alive, not killed by Maidan supporters when he jumped to ground, and letters from those who bandaged wounds of Maidan supporters.
In this case I'm not surprised. If you converse with separatists then I'm not surprised that you repeat their lie.
I wrote here about a letter from a Maidan supporter too.
Kemaweyan, you have the right to think what you want about Maidan and your new government, but do not deny the obvious fact that the Left in Russia and Ukraine have better information than the ordinary citizens of Ukraine. If one of us learns something, he informs all the Left, regardless of who they are: the Anarchists, Maoist, Ukrainian, Russian, Maidan or antiMaidan supporters. Governments can not mystify us with their propaganda, because we are enemies of all governments, and we do not believe any of them.

You say that the Russians came from abroad and rioting in Lugansk and Donetsk region? Do you know that Security Service of Ukraine arrest and bring in Kiev prison any Russian man for a few days, if he is not armed, even if he is in Donetsk or Lugansk? If those unarmed people, who prevent Ukrainian troops to enter in his cities, are Russian citizens, why they have not been arrested by Security Service? Turchynov said that the main problem in the anti-terrorist operation that residents of Donetsk and Lugansk region do not trust Ukrainian troops. Are any Russian volunteers from abroad important, if locals do not trust the Ukrainian troops?

The circumstances in Ukraine are much more complicated than you think. For example, you say that separatists staged a vote only in the cities controlled by them, and even gave the map.
Quote from: Kemaweyan on May 12, 2014, 06:20:08 PMLook at this map:

That illegal referendum was only on red regions.
Here is a video of voting in Dobropillya, that marked on map as controlled by the new government of Ukraine. And this voting is not surprising. Remember how terrorists took the control of Sloviansk. They arrived there in two cars, appointed a new police chief, toured the city with call to support them, and the next day they had the crowd of supporters at the barricades in the city and at the checkpoints.

On Saturday, we spoke with one very well informed man. I would to say that it is very critically spoke about separatists to nobody thought that he conduct propaganda. After talking with him, I realized that I was wrong, and the new government of Ukraine is unable to escalate the situation to such an extent that Putin sent troops. The point is that the Ukrainian army all that time only simulates battles against terrorists, and the government of Ukraine so far, despite all efforts, could not fix this. When the terrorists and the army faced in battle, all they shoot in the air. Everything ends when the soldiers run out of ammo. When new detachment of the National Guard comes and forces the army to go into the battle, аrmy simulates battle while terrorists destroy the National Guard. Nevertheless, we must not forget that the Russian nationalists in the Donetsk and Lugansk militia also interested in escalating the tension to encourage Putin to sent troops.

This man gave another interesting opinion. As it is known, the oligarch Kolomoysky hire numerous troops to protect their business in Dnepropetrovsk. Man with whom we spoke believes that position of Kolomoysky is very insecure. Residents of Dnipropetrovsk are hostile to Kolomoysky so that it is sufficient to send the 1500 - 2000 armed men from Lugansk to drive him out.

Tsanten Eywa 'eveng

Russian Prime Minister Dmitrij Medvedev does not rule out that Russia will enter eastern Ukraine. The Moscow Times Wednesday renders his answer to the question that he can guarantee that the regions Lugansk and Donetsk will not become part of Russia. The Russian prime minister said President Obama could have been more politically tactful when he discussed Ukraine, arguing efforts to restore a stable and good relationship between the U.S. and Russia currently for little benefit.

- All agreements that we have signed with the United States have been useful. I'm sorry that all that has been achieved, now eliminated with the recent decisions, said the Russian prime minister continued, referring among others to the sanctions the U.S. and the EU have placed on Russia.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/medvedev-says-russia-has-no-obligation-to-stay-out-of-east-ukraine/500564.html


I agree with other people that have commented, that it is Vladimir Putin who is ordering Dmitry Medvedev to say what Vladimir Putin have said to him.

baritone

Donetsk Republic announced the nationalization of all large enterprises. So far, they have nationalized railway and factories and mines belonging to the oligarch Akhmetov. This will upset Putin and Medvedev, but it will help more clearly define its program to expand its social base of support and consolidate supporters.
It was expected step of separatists if they expected to win. In addition, since the opponents of the new Ukrainian government far more than the supporters of joining Russia, separatists can increase their support if they declare that instead of joining Russia they want to conquer other parts of Ukraine. Someone from the separatist leaders have already said that he wants to go to conquer Kiev.

Tsanten Eywa 'eveng

#118
Currently now in the Customs Union, The Eurasian Economic Community customs union, is Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan member states.
Here on the map you see other countries that are considering and most likely will join.
Eurasian Economic Community Customs Union
Just to know, before the fall of the Ukrainian gouvernment, Ukraine considered to join the Eurasian Economic Community Customs Union. It was previous President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych who considered it. Azerbaijan is in the list for the Eurasian Economic Community Customs Union, but are not willing to join.
Most of these countries that are considering to join are post-Soviet states.

This has also been a hot topic, since EU doesn't support the forming of Eurasian Economic Community Customs Union

Current member states

  • Russia
  • Belarus
  • Kazakhstan

Considering to join Eurasian Economic Community Customs Union

  • Georgia
  • Armenia
  • Uzbekistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Tajikistan
  • Kyrgyzstan

Considered, but are not willing to join Eurasian Economic Community Customs Union

  • Azerbaijan
  • Ukraine
  • Moldova


Tsanten Eywa 'eveng

Wanna say today good luck to the Ukrainian people of electing a new President and a new gouvernment. As i read in the news, the "Chocolate King" Petro Poroshenko is most likely to win the election.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/25/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t1


A warm greeting from Norway :)