asteroid 99942 Apophis/2004 MN4

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

asteroid "Apophis" is a 350 meter wide asteroid(in diameter).

Apophis is named after an ancient egyptian mythological demon(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apep) (Apophis is a greek name)

in December 2004 it was a 2.7% chance to impact Earth or The Moon in 13th of april 2029,

from 7th of october 2009 it was 1 in 250.000 chance to impact Earth 13th of april 2036

in 2013, scientists will refine the orbit of Apophis, because in 2013 it will pass 0.09666 AU(14.4 million km/8.9 million miles)

map of possible impact in 2036

Spoiler

energy for impacting Earth is 510 megaton TNT, bigger than the Barringer Crater and Tunguska event(3-10 megaton TNT), bigger too than the Krakatoa eruption(200 megaton TNT)


on 13th of april 2029 it will come 18.600 miles(29933.798 km) as you can read here: http://www.space.com/12261-strangest-asteroids-solar-system-ceres-vesta-apophis.html

but there is one problem, if it coming so close, if it passes inside where the satellites is, it will impact Earth 13th of april 2036, HOPE THIS AIN'T HAPPEN!!!! hope it passes outside where the satellites is, it it does not that, we're doomed, then the scientists need to change the asteroid's trajectory, maybe push it away with rockets, or blow it, with nuclear bomb, but I think it will be dangerous to blow it from the surface on the asteroid, or thousands of pieces of the asteroid will impact on Earth, then it is just to blow it on the inside, just like on the movie "Armageddon"

[Night Raider]

Yeah, there's always a chance something will hit us. Anyway, I hope they can film 5 more Avatar sequels by then.

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

Yeah, there's always a chance something will hit us. Anyway, I hope they can film 5 more Avatar sequels by then.

2 more till 2015, maybe some more till 2036

[Äteya]

Aren't asteroids iron?
Maybe a super electro magnet to push it away.
   

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

Aren't asteroids iron?
Maybe a super electro magnet to push it away.
   

I don't think we have that strong magnet, but the Earth itself is like a magnet, when an asteroid, or comet, or whatever, it reacts on the gravity from Earth, the object will be pulled in, but a magnet to push it out, maybe a negative magnet, but 2 solutions is to set rockets on it to puch it away, or maybe this is the smartest idea, blow the asteroid from the inside of a nuclear bomb

[Amaya]

or maybe this is the smartest idea, blow the asteroid from the inside WITH a nuclear bomb

Just watched a show today detailing why this is a VERY BAD IDEA.  If you blow up a massive asteroid (and yes they were actually specifically talking about Apophis) you're still left with giant chunks of asteroid, each one large enough to make an impact on the Earth.  You would end up with lots of slightly smaller impacts rather than one large one, but the cumulative effect would ultimately be very much the same.

The best thing to do (that would likely work with this one, since we have some lead time) is a gravity tow, using a spacecraft just in front of or just behind the asteroid in order to subtly change its orbit enough that it is no longer a threat.

[Tsa'räni]

It would have to pass through an extremely small keyhole to swing around again and impact us.  The chances of that are very small.  It's nothing to worry about.

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

we see what happens 13th of april 2029, It is estimated to pass 18.600 miles, and the gravitational keyhole is 18.893 miles

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_keyhole#Size_of_keyhole

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_keyhole#The_Apophis_deflection

[Clarke]

or maybe this is the smartest idea, blow the asteroid from the inside WITH a nuclear bomb

Just watched a show today detailing why this is a VERY BAD IDEA.  If you blow up a massive asteroid (and yes they were actually specifically talking about Apophis) you're still left with giant chunks of asteroid, each one large enough to make an impact on the Earth.  You would end up with lots of slightly smaller impacts rather than one large one, but the cumulative effect would ultimately be very much the same.

Although I mostly agree, surface area is quite important for impacting asteroids, because they have to pass through our atmosphere. If you could somehow reduce Apophis to gravel, it doesn't matter so much even if all of it hits us, because the gravel will be incinerated on the way down.

[Amaya]

or maybe this is the smartest idea, blow the asteroid from the inside WITH a nuclear bomb

Just watched a show today detailing why this is a VERY BAD IDEA.  If you blow up a massive asteroid (and yes they were actually specifically talking about Apophis) you're still left with giant chunks of asteroid, each one large enough to make an impact on the Earth.  You would end up with lots of slightly smaller impacts rather than one large one, but the cumulative effect would ultimately be very much the same.

Although I mostly agree, surface area is quite important for impacting asteroids, because they have to pass through our atmosphere. If you could somehow reduce Apophis to gravel, it doesn't matter so much even if all of it hits us, because the gravel will be incinerated on the way down.

True, but the chances of it fracturing into gravel are much lower than the chances of it fracturing into dangerously large chunks with unpredictable orbits.  Personally I'd rather not take that chance!

[Tsa'räni]

we see what happens 13th of april 2029, It is estimated to pass 18.600 miles, and the gravitational keyhole is 18.893 miles

Yes, and is always the case with these kinds of posts, you failed to mention how big the keyhole is.  It's less than half a mile...

So once again, the chances of the asteroid passing through the keyhole are extremely small.

[Irtaviš Ačankif]

Even if it goes into LEO it will probably not slam into satellites. An asteroid is SMALL compared to the volume in which satellites fly. If apophis is orbiting earth people would probably need to squint to see it from MEO. It is not like a baseball hitting a basketball. More like a piece of sand hitting a watermelon...

[Clarke]

I'd say more like a grain of sand hitting the Great Wall of China.

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

but this asteroid is big, 370 meter(0.37 km), big as two football fields

[Clarke]

The Earth is 6.4 million metres across.   Space is big. 

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

12756,2 km in diameter

[Äteya]

Entering the atmosphere would burn up some of the asteroid.     

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

Entering the atmosphere would burn up some of the asteroid.     

some of the asteroid burns up, yes, but it will still be dangerous, if the asteroid coming into the atmosphere 13th of april 2036,
If it hits the Pacific, will it be tsunami, will it hit land, a lot of huge land will be destroyed, it has a chance to hit in Asia, Pacific Ocean, Middle-America or Atlantic Ocean, shown from this picture:

Spoiler

If it hits land, it will be worse than the Tunguska event in 1908. the Tunguska comet was 40 meter, Apophis is 370 meter
I think if it will hit land or ocean, it will be total chaos on Earth, definitely in the countries coasting the Pacific, if it will be a tsunami

If it will hit, it will release higher energy than the earthquake on 11 march in Japan this year
2011 Tohoku earthquake released energy on 480 megatons TNT
but asteroid Apophis will release energy on 510 megatons TNT

[Tsuksìm atsawl (KaPTan)]

Yes, but if you were to blow it up, it would go to smaller pieces, thus more surface area.  More surface area means larger space that gets melted off by the friction with the atmosphere, and an increased chance that more of it will miss the earth if indeed it would hit it normally.

[Tsanten Eywa 'eveng]

Yes, but if you were to blow it up, it would go to smaller pieces, thus more surface area.  More surface area means larger space that gets melted off by the friction with the atmosphere, and an increased chance that more of it will miss the earth if indeed it would hit it normally.

blow it up is still dangerous, 1 giant piece of the asteroid, what happens when you blow it?
the small pieces, maybe thousands of ten-thousands of pieces of the asteroid will spread around the globe, It can be dangerous, maybe it is some solutions, to puch it, out of it's orbit? maybe an another solution than blow it?